Festive sale 2026 is either booming or slipping, depending on which report you read. Redseer says the first two days brought in about ₹24,000 crore. Datum Intelligence says the first four days were 7 to 10% below last year. Unicommerce says order volumes were up 31%. All three can be true at once, and for a small seller planning the two weeks before Diwali on 8 November, the gap between them is more useful than any single headline.
Here is what each report measured, why they disagree, and what to do with your stock, pricing and ads before the last stretch of the season.
Three reports, three different questions
Redseer: the first two days
Redseer Strategy Consultants estimated about ₹24,000 crore in GMV across platforms in the first two days, roughly 6 times the normal daily run rate, from about 6 to 6.5 crore shoppers placing 8 to 9 crore orders, according to PTI's report in the Free Press Journal. By value, mobile phones were 38 to 40% of sales and consumer electronics 25 to 27%. Fashion was 15 to 18%, with fashion GMV up 22 to 25% year on year. About two-thirds of shoppers came from Tier 2 cities and rural areas.
Datum: four days, compared with last year
Datum Intelligence put online festive GMV for 7 to 10 October 2026 at ₹29,800 to ₹30,900 crore, against ₹33,200 crore in the same period of 2025: a fall of roughly 7 to 10%, as reported by Lapaas Voice. The same report cited industry executives saying dispatches in the first ten days of the big marketplace sales were 10 to 12% lower than last year, with premium electronics prices up sharply and discounts thinner in some categories.
Unicommerce: orders flowing through its software
Unicommerce, whose software processes orders for many brands and sellers, compared the first week of festive sales this year (7 to 13 October 2026) with the first week last year (22 to 28 September 2025). It reported, via Equity Bulls:
Order volumes up 31%, GMV up 17%, average order value down 10%.
Quick commerce orders up 85%, marketplaces up 26%, brand websites up 27%.
FMCG orders up over 190%, beauty and personal care up over 69%, home decor up over 22%.
Tier 3 towns at 42% of orders.
Why the numbers disagree
None of these reports is wrong. They are measuring different things:
Different windows. Two days, four days and seven days, against different comparison periods.
Different samples. Redseer and Datum estimate the whole market. Unicommerce sees only orders processed on its own platform, so its picture depends on which brands and sellers use its software.
Value versus volume. When phones and laptops get pricier and discounts shrink, people buy fewer big-ticket items. Market GMV can stall even while the number of orders for cheaper things climbs.
That last point is the real story for small sellers. Put the reports side by side and a pattern appears: big-ticket electronics are soft, while everyday categories (FMCG, beauty, home decor, fashion) are growing in orders, at a lower average order value.
What this means if you sell online
If you sell fashion, beauty, home or everyday goods, the early data is on your side. Here is a practical checklist for the run-up to Diwali.
1. Stock up on what is actually moving
Pull your own last-three-week sales report and rank products by units, not revenue. A falling average order value means more people buying cheaper items. Make sure your best-selling low-price SKUs will not run out in the final week, when replenishment is slowest.
2. Rethink bundles before you rethink discounts
With average order value down, a small bundle (a kurta with a dupatta, a skincare duo, a diya set with candles) can lift basket size without cutting your margin on each piece. It is usually cheaper than a deeper discount.
3. Price for Tier 2 and Tier 3 buyers
With Tier 3 towns at 42% of Unicommerce's orders and two-thirds of Redseer's shoppers outside the metros, clear pricing matters. Show the final price including delivery early, and if you offer cash on delivery, watch your return-to-origin rates closely in these weeks.
4. Check whether quick commerce suits your category
An 85% jump in quick commerce orders is hard to ignore, but it is not for everyone. It suits small, fast-moving items people want today: snacks, beauty basics, puja items, small gifts. If that is your range, look at what onboarding involves after the season, when there is time to do it properly.
5. Do not chase electronics-season ad prices
Big sale windows tend to be the most competitive time to buy ads. If your category is not electronics, put more of your budget into the days when your own data shows buyers converting, rather than matching the biggest players on day one.
The hidden cost to watch in the last two weeks
More orders at lower value means fixed costs per order hurt more. Shipping, packaging, payment fees and returns do not shrink when the order does. Before you run a final-week offer, work out your margin on your cheapest best-seller after every fee. If it is already thin, a discount on top can turn your busiest week into your least profitable one.
The season is not over: Redseer was looking at an 11-day first leg, and Diwali is still two weeks away. Treat these early reports as a weather forecast, not a scorecard. Your own dashboard, read weekly, is the one that matters.
